Test of Time

Test of Time provides regular, quasi real-time model updates to showcase and assess forecasting research across climate science and macroeconomics. Our interactive tools facilitate detailed model assessment and outreach between policymakers, practitioners, and researchers. We welcome both working papers and published works.

Latest Models

Climate Forecasting

Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting

Fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent using linear regression and machine learning models.

Macro-Forecasting

Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation

The Albacore algorithm for constructing a forward-looking measure of core inflation.

Macro-Forecasting

Dual Machine Learning Interpretation

A dual interpretation framework for understanding machine learning forecast contributions.

Macro-Forecasting

HNN Inflation Forecasts

Interactive US inflation forecasts comparing Horizontal Neural Networks with classical approaches.